According to the predictions of the famous analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin is expected to reach one billion users in the next three years. This prediction is based on the similarity of the development of the Bitcoin user network with the growth of the Internet in the 1990s.
Willy Woo is an acquaintance pioneer of on-chain analytics and is a Bitcoin evangelist. His Twitter profile is tracked by 1 million followers, who receive regular updates on the Bitcoin network, cryptocurrencies, and the widespread adoption of blockchain technology.
on wednesday cheep, returned to the last topic and made a new attempt to estimate the future growth rate of BTC adoption. His calculations are an extrapolation of several figures:
- During the first six months, the number of users reached 1,000
- After five years there were 1 million
- Currently, 13.8 years after its creation, the Bitcoin network has more than 300 million users.
This last figure represents 4% of the world population. According to Woo, if this rate of growth continues, the number of users will reach 1 billion in the next three years. This will represent 12% of the world’s population.
Diffusion of innovations since 1990
The idea of adoption curves articulates how new technologies have been developed and popularized in large communities. For example, the graph below shows how new technologies have spread in the United States from 1900 to the present.
We can see that the development of most technologies follows an S-shaped curve. Sometimes it stretches a lot, mainly in the first half of the 20th century. Sometimes it is narrow and looks more like the letter “I”, especially in the last three decades.
In any case, the recurring pattern is based on the idea of diffusion of innovations, according to which the slow adoption of a new technology accelerates after a certain critical point is reached. This point marks the phase of assimilation of the innovation by an ever-widening social circle.
Rather, there is a slowdown at the end, with technology gradually penetrating the last bastions of late adopters and laggards.
Bitcoin Adoption Curve Follows the Internet
According to some analysts, BTC has already completed the periods of innovation (2.5% of the population) and early adopters (13.5%) and is now entering the early majority phase (34%). For example, user @liquiditario tweeted a graph of Bitcoin’s adoption curve, in which he marked the current stage of development.
If this estimate is correct, then in fact the BTC network is at the threshold of exponential growth. So Willy Woo’s prediction that 12% of the population will use Bitcoin in three years may come true.
Furthermore, blockchain technology and Bitcoin have an excellent benchmark against the Internet, which is several decades older. It turns out that the development curves of these two technologies overlap very well.
In the box below tweeted by @Issherai, we see that the two graphs of the total number of Internet users (green) and cryptocurrency users (blue) are almost identical. The only difference lies in the different dates of its diffusion.
The widespread adoption of the Internet began in the 1990s (upper X-axis), while the adoption of cryptocurrencies has continued from 2014 to the present (lower X-axis). If this growth rate is maintained, we can actually expect 1 billion cryptocurrency users around 2025-26.
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