Progress Towards Bitcoin Halving Is 60% Complete, Block Times Suggest Halving Could Happen Next Year

According to countdown statistics based on the average block generation time of around ten minutes, progress towards the next Bitcoin block reward halving has exceeded 60%. However, while most halving countdown clocks take advantage of the ten minute average, the countdown taking advantage of the most current block intervals of around 7:65 minutes shows that the halving could happen in 2023.

Faster Block Intervals Suggest Bitcoin Halving in 2023

Recently, at block height 757,214, mined on October 5, 2022, Bitcoin’s total hashrate reached an all-time high (ATH) of 321.15 exahash per second (EH/s). Lately, the intervals between blocks have been faster than usual and well below the ten minute average.

Progress Towards Bitcoin Halving Is 60% Complete, Block Times Suggest Halving Could Happen Next Year

The speed at which the 2,016 blocks are found between difficulty settings determines the difficulty, and the current block intervals suggest that there is a big difficulty jump in the cards. Now, before the next difficulty increase, the hashrate has held strong and block times at the time of writing are around 7:65 minutes.

Progress Towards Bitcoin Halving Is 60% Complete, Block Times Suggest Halving Could Happen Next Year
Since October 7, 2022, the Bitcoin network has progressed more than 60% closer to the next reward halving.

The next mining difficulty target change is scheduled for or around October 10, 2022. If block times remain faster than usual even after the target change, the protocol’s block reward could be halved by 2023. Statistics from bitcoinsensus.com indicate that at 7:65 minutes per block interval, block, the halving could take place around December 19, 2023.

Bitcoinsensus.com further shows the halving time based on the ten minute average rule showing that the halving will occur on May 1, 2024. Most countdown calculators apply the ten minute average rule. minutes, and other data points suggest the halving could happen in April. 20, 2024.

Progress Towards Bitcoin Halving Is 60% Complete, Block Times Suggest Halving Could Happen Next Year
Source: bitcoinsensus.com – Screenshot taken on Sunday, October 9, 2022.

Either way, progress towards the next halving is still more than 60% complete, and when it happens, bitcoin miner rewards will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3,125 BTC after the halving. Despite the high speed now, miners could easily slow down after the significant difficulty increase is recorded on Oct. 10 and if BTC prices remain low.

This, in turn, would push the halving date back to the 2024 range, and after all, there is still over a year of BTC block subsidies to mine. Much can change. According to a recent blog post from Blocksbridge Consulting, the change in difficulty and low price range could give bitcoin miners a headache from lost profits.

“Bitcoin daily mining revenue per PH/s is currently around $80. If the difficulty increases by 13% on Monday and the bitcoin price stays at $19.5K, daily revenue would drop to $70 per (petahash) PH/s,” notes Blocksbridge Consulting’s Miner Weekly #17. “That would see mining companies extracting daily revenues that are all-time low, even lower than what we saw during the post-halving summer of May 2020.”

The blog post adds:

Unless the price of bitcoin breaks the $20,000 barrier, those using older generation machines or have bloated mining operations will face an even tougher time ahead.

Progress Towards Bitcoin Halving Is 60% Complete, Block Times Suggest Halving Could Happen Next Year
Eight different blockchains await reward reductions or reward halvings. Networks include DASH, BCH, LTC, BSV, ETC, BTC, ZEN, and ZEC.

Viabtc’s ​​Viawallet halving metrics show that eight blockchains are expected to see reward halvings or what are known as “reward halvings.” Dash expects a reward reduction on June 20, 2023, as rewards will be reduced from 2.76 DASH to 2.56 DASH. Other reward halvings and reduction events will be derived from blockchains including BCH, BSV, LTC, ETC, ZEC, and ZEN.

Tags in this story

$20K Region, 2024, 3.125 BTC, 6.25 BTC, Bitcoin, Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Miners, Bitcoin mining, bitcoin miners, block times, Blocksbridge Consulting, BTC Mining, December 2023, difficulty , difficulty change, halving date, Hashrate, low income, Miner Weekly issue 17, mining, Old Machines

What do you think about the progress of the Bitcoin network towards the next halving above 60%? Let us know what you think about this topic in the comments section below.

jamie redman

Jamie Redman is the news lead at Bitcoin.com News and a fintech journalist based in Florida. Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011. He is passionate about Bitcoin, open source code, and decentralized applications. Since September 2015, Redman has written over 6,000 articles for Bitcoin.com News about the disruptive protocols emerging today.




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