Weekly waves: EUR/USD, XAU/USD and Bitcoin

  • EUR/USD breaking below the support zone (green dots), indicating a further move down rather than a correction to the upside.

  • BTC/USD (Bitcoin) faces three different scenarios, indicated by s1, s2 and s3 (green).

  • Gold (XAU/USD) has made a strong bullish bounce (reversal?) at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

EUR/USD bearish decline in ABC pattern

EUR/USD breaking below the support zone (green dot), indicating a larger bearish move rather than a bullish correction:

  1. EUR/USD is probably building a bearish ABC (orange) pattern.

  2. The ABC (orange) must complete a wave B (yellow) of a larger ABC (yellow).

  3. The ABC pattern (yellow) could complete a wave 4 (pink).

  4. Price action could drop towards the deeper Fibonacci levels or the previous low.

  5. A bounce to the upside could retest the resistance lines (purple) and the 23.6% Fibonacci level.

  6. A bearish flag pattern (grey lines) followed by a bearish breakout invalidates the bullish ABC and indicates an immediate downtrend.

Bitcoin tests solid and key support

BTC/USD (Bitcoin) faces three different scenarios, indicated by s1, s2 and s3 (green):

  1. The first scenario (s1 green) indicates an immediate bearish break towards the Fibonacci target of -27.2%.

  2. The second scenario (s2 green) indicates a retest of resistance and then a bounce back towards the same Fibonacci target. Both s1 and s2 are part of wave C (yellow)

  3. The third scenario (s3 green) indicates a larger bullish pullback within a wave A (yellow) of a larger wave X (pink).

  4. Eventually wave C (yellow) should complete a wave W (pink).

  5. A further WXY correction (pink) is expected within wave 2 (grey).

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XAU/USD Bullish Bounce or Reversal at 50% Fibonacci

Gold (XAU/USD) has made a strong bullish bounce (reversal?) at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level:

  1. Gold’s 50% Fibonacci bounce could confirm the end of wave 4 (pink).

  2. A larger wave 5 (orange) of a wave C (yellow) could have completed at 50% Fib.

  3. The strong bullish bounce could be a wave 1-2 (orange) of a larger wave 1 (yellow).

  4. This bullish reversal could remain valid as long as price action remains above the low at the 50% Fibonacci level.

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The analysis has been carried out with the indicators and template of the SWAT method simple wave analysis and trading. For more analysis and daily technical and wave updates, subscribe to our newsletter

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